Date: Tuesday 6 February 2024
Location: Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU
Capacity for the workshops is limited - please register early to secure your place.
WORKSHOP 1: Australia’s net zero trajectory – exploring the economic implications
- Explore the state of knowledge and key aspects of a net zero transition for Australia encompassing the interaction with global targets and achievements to date, economic implications, and similarities and differences to our near neighbours.
- Explore the decarbonization challenges in the Australian electricity sector alongside the implications for demand from electrification of other current energy sources.
- Explore the regional opportunities and challenges of delivering net zero for Australia, and a lesser extent the region.
- Engage in a timely discussion of the key policy challenges as Australia grapples with reaching net zero.
The workshop will be timely for the many policy and analytical professionals who are grappling with understanding the scale and implications of the net zero transition for Australia.
- A professional supporting policy development in state and national governments and want to know more about where your work fits in the bigger picture
- A consultant keen to understand the net zero state of play
- A stakeholder keen to identify sectoral challenges and opportunities
- A researcher wanting to identify the applied research needs to support a net zero transition
|SESSION 1: Setting the scene: What a net zero transition means for the Australian economy
|Global net zero framing and considerations
|Frank Jotzo, ANU Professor of environmental economics and climate change economics
|What does a net zero pathway look like for Australia
|George Verikios, CSIRO Net Zero Pathways Initiative Lead BI (IEA modelling of a net zero pathway for Australia)
|Key Net Zero Transition Challenges for the Australian Economy
|Alex Heath, Head of Climate and Energy Division. Australian Government Treasury
|SESSION 2: Transitioning our electricity and energy systems
|Scale and timing of the electricity transition challenge for Australia
|Luke Reedman, Lead – Energy Transition Pathways, CSIRO Energy
|What role for Hydrogen in Australia’s future energy sector?
|Fiona Beck – ANU Project convenor, ANU Grand Challenge: Zero-Carbon Energy for the Asia-Pacific
|What role for Bioenergy in Australia?
|Mengyu Li, University of Sydney, Integrated Sustainability Analysis, Faculty of Science
|SESSION 3: The Net Zero transition in Australian regions and sectors
|What do net zero pathways mean for land use in Australia
|Ray Marcos Martinez, CSIRO Net Zero Pathways research Land Use Stream Lead
|Regional net zero transition implications for Victoria
|Martin Jones, Technical lead for economics and energy in Climate Action Policy, Victorian Government
|The role of Renewable energy precincts in transition
|Chris Briggs, UTS
|Sectoral implications of a net zero transition for Australia
|Anna Skarbek, Climate Works
|SESSION 4: Economic policy and the net zero economy
|What are the critical ‘hard to achieve’
policy challenges facing
Australia from your perspective
|Kath Rowley, DCCEEW
Erwin Jackson, Investor Group on Climate Change,
Jee Karunarathna, Net Zero Economy Agency
Each session will comprise a mix of applied researchers presenting analytical results and policy makers who will explore the policy challenges and in some instances the policy responses. The intent is to generate a more active discussion amongst all participants (research presenters, panel contributors, audience).
WORKSHOP 2: Natural Capital: State of Play and Future Challenges
- John Rolfe (Central Queensland University): Environmental valuation and environmental markets.
- David Pannell (University of Western Australia): Property rights in nature markets.
- Karel Nolles (Aton): State of play in environmental markets and finance based on his experience in green banking and consulting, with particular reference to critical data management and governance issues.
- Liz Heagney (Farming for the Future / Aton): Natural capital in productive systems.
- Valerie Seidel (Balmoral Group): An international perspective on natural capital initiatives.
- Gillian Mayne (Department of Environment and Science, Queensland Government): Current natural capital actions and programs in Queensland, Australia.
- Megan Evans (University of NSW) and Andrew MacIntosh (Australian National University): Critical perspectives on nature markets and the use of offsets in environmental policy.
- Michael Vardon (ANU, Fenner School of Environment and Society); Natural Capital Accounting.
WORKSHOP 3: Real Options for Adaptation and Resilience (ROAR): New software for real options analysis
- To help build a community of practice among applied economists and scientists in real options analysis.
- To identify problems that researchers wish to solve and guide them in the methods and tools to solve them.
- To get feedback from workshop participants to enhance the community of practice, methods of analysis, software, and documentation.
- Tim Capon will introduce the types of research problems the ROAR software can help to solve, demonstrate recent applications of the ROAR software to climate adaptation and agroforestry, and guide discussion about future applications and extensions to this analytical approach.
- Greg Hertzler will introduce the theoretical concepts behind the real options approach and demonstrate how the new software calculates option values, how to use expected times and probabilities for switches between different agricultural production regimes to investigate adoption decisions and the resilience of agricultural and ecological systems to endogenous perturbations or adverse shocks.
- Introduction to real options: What is real options analysis and how can it be applied to analyse adoption problems and the resilience of agricultural and environmental systems? The introduction will cover the workshop aims and outcomes, including the relevance of the approach to research and policy, identifying the types of relevant problem, and the relationship between the real options analysis workflow and benefit-cost analysis. Examples of research and policy problems in agricultural and environmental contexts will be used to introduce the analytical framework, including climate adaptation in agriculture based on Sanderson et al.’s (2015) wheat-sheep example, and the analysis of resilience building on Grafton et al. (2019) and related concepts.
- Introducing the software: A combination of R Shiny and PowerPoint presentations will be used to show how the ROAR software relates to the elements of the real options analytical framework. An outline of the analytical framework will be used to show how using the expected time to a decision threshold can help us analyse how the value of flexibility affects adoption and resilience.
- Software demonstration: Interactive with demonstrations of the software in Excel, R, and R Shiny. This session will show how ROAR can help answer a range of questions, such as:
- “What is the expected time until reaching a biophysical threshold?” by estimating the distribution of times until reaching this threshold.
- “What is the value of a new technology (e.g., drought-tolerant wheat variety) worth to a farmer even if they don’t immediately choose to adopt it?” by estimating the value of having the option to adopt a new crop variety.
- “What is the expected time until a decision-maker adopts a new approach?” by estimating the state decision threshold value and the distribution of times until reaching this threshold.
- “How likely are they to adopt the new technology in the next 5 years?” by looking at the distribution of times for the probability of adoption within 5 years.
- “Is agricultural production more resilient with this new technology?” by comparing scenarios with and without a new technology in terms of the expected time until reaching decision thresholds to switch to the next best alternative form of agricultural production.
- Discussion of applications: A guided discussion of applications of the approach, including providing participants with opportunities to follow up with workshop convenors after the conference.